News: Economic Briefing and Seminars
Economy continues recovery despite trade chaos, but risks remain
South Australia’s economy is expected to strengthen in 2025/26, despite facing a difficult trading environment overseas. Final spending in the State has picked up and the labour market is strong. A rebound in the upcoming winter grain crop – driven by more favourable seasonal conditions – an easing of cost of living pressures and stronger growth in the Australian economy will support South Australia in the year ahead.Â
However, there are two main risks to the economic outlook for South Australia: the potential for the United States to proceed with aggressive tariff increases which may provoke retaliatory measures from key trading partners, and the ongoing challenge of restoring stronger productivity growth across the Australian economy.
These findings are outlined in the latest Economic Briefing Report from the SA Centre for Economic Studies.
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Subdued growth for SA, while cost of living crisis eases
South Australia's economy grew weakly in 2023/24 due to capacity constraints and subdued household spending, according to the latest SACES Economic Briefing Report from SACES. While the labour market remained resilient with low unemployment, households faced severe cost-of-living pressures, with real per capita disposable incomes declining for a second consecutive year. Looking ahead, a modest recovery in household spending and easing inflation are expected, but challenges like a smaller winter grain crop and global trade risks may dampen growth prospects.
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Significant slowdown in economy amidst weak spending
The South Australian economy has lost momentum over the past six months with key economic indicators showing weaker trends, according to the latest Economic Briefing Report from the SA Centre for Economic Studies.
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Record decline in purchasing power for SA households
South Australian households have experienced an unprecedented decline in their purchasing power over the past year. In our latest Economic Briefing Report, SACES estimates that households’ gross disposable incomes on a real per capita basis fell by around 7 per cent in 2022/23. Consequently, households are finding it increasingly difficult to sustain their spending levels. This situation will continue to suppress household spending in 2024, which will lead to a slowdown in South Australia’s economic growth next year.
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SA household spending loses momentum as cost-of-living weighs heavy
Aggregate spending in South Australia has lost momentum over the past year as cost of living issues have weighed on household spending. Nonetheless, the State has enjoyed an especially strong recovery from the pandemic, and many areas of the economy are now operating at very high levels of capacity. These conclusions are contained in the latest Economic Briefing Report from the SA Centre for Economic Studies.Â
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SA economic growth to moderate as headwinds intensify and capacity constraints are reached
The latest Economic Briefing Report from the SA Centre for Economic Studies concludes that the SA economy will continue to expand in the new year, but at a slower pace. After two years of rapid growth, the state economy is now operating at a very high level of capacity utilisation with unemployment at low levels. Tighter financial conditions, cost of living pressures and high energy prices are all expected to have a dampening influence on growth in 2023.
SA economic recovery to continue despite cost of living crisis
South Australia’s economic recovery is set to continue despite inflation and rising interest rates putting increased strain on household budgets. But with household and public sector consumption expected to weaken, the State’s export performance will need to improve to compensate. These conclusions are contained in the latest Economic Briefing Report from the SA Centre for Economic Studies.Â
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Slow vaccine roll-out could deepen economic scars
In their latest Economic Briefing Report, economists from the SA Centre for Economic Studies (SACES) conclude that while South Australia’s economy is recovering strongly, the slow vaccine roll-out is a significant threat to the nation’s ongoing ability to weather the long-term effects of the pandemic. They also warn that Australia needs to raise the standards of governance at all levels in order to deal with increasing economic, political, and environmental threats.
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China tariffs will hinder SA economic recovery
University of ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø economists expect the South Australian economy will continue to bounce back in 2020/21. However, economic recovery will be weaker than previously thought as a consequence of China’s decision to escalate its trade war with Australia, the outbreak of a second COVID-19 wave in the northern hemisphere, and South Australia’s own mini lockdown in November.
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SA economy will take years to recover from COVID-19
It will take years for the national and South Australian economies to return to full output and employment following the COVID-19 pandemic.
These conclusions are contained in the latest Economic Briefing Report prepared by University of ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø economists from the SA Centre for Economic Studies (SACES).
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